June 20, 2013

Trade war salvos

It appears that we just witnessed the follow-up salvos in what might turn out to be a full-scale trade war between China and the West. Unfortunately, the product at the centre of the fracas is the solar panel, which has the potential to assist in the most crucial global challenge of the century – global warming and climate change.
Last October, following up on preliminary penalties set earlier in the year, the U.S. Commerce Department set anti-dumping duties ranging from 18.32 per cent to 249.96 per cent on solar energy cells imported from China.
“Dumping” is the term applied to products exported below their production cost and is prohibited by World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. Maybe the move was prompted by the then looming presidential election in which Barack Obama was criticised by his Republican rival for being “soft” on China. But the tariffs are still in place and are sure to come up when the Chinese President Xi Jinping meets President Obama this Friday.
One of the companies that had filed the anti-dumping charge was German and was also part of a parallel case filed with the European Union (EU) Trade Commission. This Tuesday, the commission imposed preliminary tariffs of 11.8 per cent on solar panels produced in China, with the promise of final tariffs of 47 per cent to be applied in two months, unless remedial action is taken.
Over € 20 billion of business is involved. Without mentioning the action on its solar panels, within hours, China announced an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation of wines imported from the EU. The investigation could lead to the imposition of steep tariffs by China on these wines.
With its growing millions of wealthy citizens, the demand for European wine has grown exponentially in China and to meet the demand, large investments have been made, especially in the French wine industry. The charge of dumping is one that has been raised very frequently in Europe and the U.S. by local manufacturers against the cheap Chinese imports flooding their markets. At the same time there are powerful forces, including the leaders of Germany and 16 other members of the EU, that have warned against taking precipitate action. The EU Trade Commission, however, felt otherwise.
Ironically, it was hoped that Obama might have now removed the U.S. tariffs on the Chinese solar panels and play a role in averting the very actions that the EU and China have now taken. China and the U.S. have been sparring on their responsibilities to reduce global warming and solar panels, which are totally “green”, have been playing a major role in reducing greenhouse gases.
The problem was that solar energy had traditionally been more expensive to use than carbon-intensive coal or oil. But in recent years solar power has become much cheaper through a host of factors, including Chinese competition. Energy experts predict that its cost could match that of conventional fuels in the next few years in some areas.
Solar cell prices have been falling, from US$76 per watt in 1977 to about US$ 10 in 1987 and only 74 U.S. cents in 2013. Between 2006 and 2011, Chinese cell prices dropped 80 per cent from US$ 4.50 per watt to 90 U.S. cents per watt. The use of solar energy shot up as the cost went down. Global installed capacity jumped by 28.4GW in 2012 to 89.5GW. The 100GW milestone will be crossed sometime this year.
The truth of the matter is that China subsidises and promotes its solar industry. But the U.S. and Europe also provide massive subsidies and supports – including loan guarantees, research grants and tax deductions such as investment tax credits and accelerated value depreciation. We do not have to mention the subsidies that the U. S. and EU have in their agriculture sectors.
We hope that the issue will be resolved between Presidents Obama and Xi Jinping. It is the grass that suffers when the elephants even make love.

Well-deserved kudos

About 30 years ago, AIDS was terrifying, deadly and spreading at a rapid rate, but today, we have a chance to end this epidemic once and for all. In reviewing the progress made since the 2001 Special Session on HIV/AIDS, the United Nations (UN) had pointed out that new infections had dropped by 20 per cent, and HIV was on a steep decline in some of the most-affected countries, including Ethiopia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe, which had cut infection rates by one quarter in the last 30 years.
Countries again pledged in 2011 to take specific steps to achieve ambitious goals by 2015. While some have already achieved measurable progress and are closer to achieving the targets agreed to, there is still a far way to go for others.
According to a report by UNAIDS, 34 million people around the world are now thought to have the virus that causes AIDS. The head of UNAIDS, Michael Sidibi, in a recent update, said that 25 countries have reduced the number of new infections by more than 50 per cent. In his estimation, the world has moved from a phase of political rhetoric to effective programmes being implemented which are certainly having a positive impact.
It should also be noted that many more people with HIV are now receiving life-saving drugs which help to keep the virus under control. In the Caribbean region, we can boast of several successes in relation to our HIV response.  Programmes to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission, reduce new HIV infections and treat people living with the virus have yielded encouraging results. For example, from 2009 to 2011, there was a 32 per cent reduction in the number of babies contracting HIV from their mothers.
Additionally, the Caribbean is the only developing region that has approached the near-universal coverage of antiretroviral medicines to prevent mother-to-child transmission. Some 79 per cent of pregnant women living with HIV now access treatment to prevent passing on the virus. This is certainly quite an achievement by any standard.
Guyana, in particular, is being lauded by key stakeholders for its remarkable progress in fighting HIV/AIDS. Guyana/Suriname UN HIV/AIDS programme coordinator, Dr Roberto Luiz Brant Campos, recently said that Guyana is on track for the achievement of Goal Six of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which seeks to combat HIV/AIDS by 2015.
He pointed to the outstanding feat of Guyana in decreasing its HIV prevalence in pregnant women in the last 10 years from 2.6 to 0.9 per cent. This was achieved through the ‘prevention of mother-to-child transmission programme’, which has received accolades internationally and is now being used as a best practice in many countries.
The UNAIDS representative also lauded the fact that access to HIV/AIDS treatment is now readily available to 80 per cent of the population in need. This country has also seen a steady decrease of HIV/AIDS cases from 2006. According to the National AIDS Programme Secretariat (NAPS), the number of reported HIV/AIDS cases in Guyana has been reduced to one per cent of the total population, complying with the UNAIDS target of 1.3 per cent.
Guyana is currently pursuing a trajectory of eliminating HIV/AIDS by 2020, as outlined in its strategic plan. Health officials in Guyana said the country is on a path to achieving a collective goal of having zero new infections, zero stigma and discrimination, zero AIDS-related deaths and zero mother-to-child transmission by 2020.
That being said, the region, including Guyana, cannot become complacent. In order to sustain the advances made, governments and international donor partners need to put more money and effort towards ensuring that their HIV programmes can be sustained. As advised by UNAIDS Caribbean Regional Support Team Director, Dr Ernest Massiah, more needs to be done to address the prejudice and social inequities that operate to make some people, both more vulnerable to HIV infection and less likely to access prevention, testing, treatment and care services. Young people, men who have sex with men and sex workers are among the populations that need targeted investments and more protective environments.
While we must be proud of our successes, it is necessary for us to continue to press governments, civil society and the private sector to work together to ensure that past commitments to achieve universal access to life-saving treatments were met, and that the elusive pandemic was stopped in its tracks once and for all.

Road safety

According to World Bank statistics, every year the lives of almost 1.24 million people are cut short as a result of road accidents. Between 20 and 50 million more people suffer non-fatal injuries, with many incurring a disability as a result of their injury. The Caribbean is no exception. This region has suffered its fair share of disasters on the road resulting in a number of its citizens losing their lives or becoming disabled at a very young age. Almost every week there is some news that someone was killed on the roadways and despite actions on several fronts, including enacting the relevant legislation and increasing the number of ‘campaigns’, the Caribbean does not seem to be winning the battle in significantly reducing the number of road deaths.
The Second UN Global Road Safety Week, which was observed recently (6-12 May 2013), was dedicated to pedestrian safety. The week’s activities drew attention to the urgent need to better protect pedestrians worldwide, generated action on the measures needed to do so, and contributed to achieving the goal of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011-2020 to save 5 million lives.
Walking is the most fundamental form of mobility, yet it is also the most vulnerable to road traffic injury. According to the World Health Organisation’s 2013 ‘Global Status Report on Road Safety’, over one-fifth of all road traffic deaths (270,000 annually) are pedestrians. In some countries, such as Ghana, the proportion of pedestrians among road traffic deaths is as high as 40 percent.
Many risk factors contribute to the high vulnerability of pedestrians, including the speed of vehicles, alcohol, inadequate visibility, lack of pedestrian safety facilities, and inadequate enforcement of traffic laws. This is documented in a recent best practices manual jointly commissioned by the World Health Organisation, the FIA Foundation, the Global Road Safety Partnership, and the World Bank.
Nelson Mandela’s great-granddaughter Zenani was killed in a car crash as she was returning home from a World Cup concert in Soweto in 2010. Her death, two days after her 13th birthday, drew global attention to the high toll in lives and devastating injuries from road traffic crashes globally. Their loss also turned the Mandela family into activists for global road safety.
“On the same day that I lost Zenani, a thousand other families also lost a child on the world’s roads,” her mother, Zoleka Mandela, writes on the website of the Zenani Mandela Campaign.
Road traffic injuries cause considerable economic losses to victims, their families, and to nations as a whole. These losses arise from the cost of treatment (including rehabilitation and incident investigation) as well as reduced/lost productivity (e.g. in wages) for those killed or disabled by their injuries, and for family members who need to take time off work (or school) to care for the injured.
According to the WHO, national estimates have illustrated that road traffic crashes cost countries between 1–3% of their gross national product, while the financial impact on individual families has been shown to result in increased financial borrowing and debt, and even a decline in food consumption.
Some believe that road traffic injuries have been neglected from the global health agenda for many years, despite being predictable and largely preventable. Evidence from many countries shows that dramatic successes in preventing road traffic crashes can be achieved through concerted efforts that involve, but are not limited to, the health sector.
Organisations such as the WB and WHO have argued that while there is no single measure to address all pedestrian risks, many steps can be taken to improve their safety. For example, a 5 percent cut in speed can reduce fatal crashes by 30 percent. Road design, land-use planning, and vehicle design are other important factors.
Further, collecting reliable data is also essential to improving road safety and reducing risks for pedestrians. According to a recent WHO study, data systems in most countries remain poor, with 71 percent of countries relying on police data systems only. Many deaths occur after a crash victim has been transported to a hospital, so data from health systems are also needed to derive a better understanding of the issue.

Anti-Indian racism in Guyana

Former President Bharrat Jagdeo, evidently hit a raw nerve when, at the funerary services for veteran religious leader, social activist and politician Reepu Daman Persaud, he spoke out against a “resurgence of anti-Indian racism” in Guyana. Some tried to deflect from his thesis by dragging in the red herring of “time and place”. As we commemorate Arrival Day (May 5th) when Indians first arrived into the then colony of British Guiana, we can appreciate that the occasion was supremely appropriate.
Reepu Daman, after all, had been a staunch advocate of the rights of all citizens of this land to enjoy its patrimony without discrimination in any way, shape or form. As one who had struggled and risen out of the logees of Plantation Diamond to confront racism in the capital and prevailed, surely he would not have been oblivious to the old, racist drumbeats becoming ever increasingly strident.
A “resurgence of racism” implies that the phenomenon was once ascendant and perhaps had subsided. This “Arrival Day” provides a fortuitous occasion for the nation to look backwards – not in anger but with a determination not to allow the forces of hate and divisions to prevail once again. The initial racist behaviour against the newly arrived Indians were grounded firmly in the British policy of “divide and rule”. It pitted one group of “natives” against another, while the British occupied the high ground literally and figuratively.
As we review the autobiographical snippets of the white, African and Coloured Guyanese and examine their attitudes towards the Indians, we can see the genesis of the vocabulary and disdain fostered by the Europeans. The Indian had not mastered the rudiments of the British “education” and therefore he must be an ignorant buffoon. How would the other races know of the great achievements of the millennia-old civilisation of the Indian if they were not “educated” about it. So the Indian and his cultural expressions were defined as “beyond the pale”.
How different is it even today, when the Ministry of Culture initiates schools of dance, music and drama and still studiously excludes the Indian contributions in these areas? How much has the British “education” not still pervaded officialdom? We witness the British colonial encouraging the exclusion of the Indian in the state sector by promulgating exclusionary standards.
It is to the credit of the Indian that he did not sit around wringing his hands but took whatever means were available to improve his lot. Unlike what some are asserting, Indian success in agriculture did not arise out of any beneficence of the British to “give” them land. The condition of his indenture demanded that he be repatriated to India at the end of his contracted time. The British simply wanted to avoid this expense and encouraged the Indian to relinquish that right in lieu of a couple of acres of swampy land.
Through money saved subsequently from rice and cattle, the Indians educated themselves and soon began to demand a piece of the national pie, as citizens who had made British Guiana their home. But by then, those who had benefitted from the old order, and buttressed by their now inbred feelings of superiority, refused to allow the Indian on the national stage. Resentment grew when some Indians could not be denied through their patently superior qualifications. As was shown in the ICJ Report, the percentages of Indians in the Civil Service lagged far below their percentages in the private professional occupations where merit was the dominant requirement. The only constant that could explain this variable was racial discrimination.
Today, all Guyanese must stand as one and reaffirm our commitment towards building a nation in which individuals must not be judged by their race or ethnicity. Let us nip the scourge of anti-Indian racism, and any other discriminatory behaviour in the bud.

Caricom reset

In view of the increasingly serious challenges facing the Caribbean economically and socially, it is in the interest of all the member states of the Caribbean Community (Caricom) to recognise that it was in cognisance of the need for collective action to confront such challenges, that the institution was launched in 1973. Specific commitments, which between states are embodied in institutions – in this case Caricom – were made by the founding fathers and these were accepted by the later members.
In its latest formulation, the objectives of Caricom were described as: to improve standards of living and work; the full employment of labour and other factors of production; accelerated, coordinated, and sustained economic development and convergence; expansion of trade and economic relations with third states; enhanced levels of international competitiveness; organisation for increased production and productivity; achievement of a greater measure of economic leverage; effectiveness of member states in dealing with third states, groups of states, and entities of any description; and the enhanced coordination of member states’ foreign economic policies and enhanced functional cooperation.
But impressive offices and grand meetings and laudable goals are not the test of whether international institutions are successful. The test is whether member countries are ready to make genuine commitments to each other and that means in the end whether they are prepared to follow the rules embodied in the institution to deliver the stated objectives.
Without that, the institution lacks any real purpose and this is why today, on the cusp of its 40th anniversary, Caricom is on “pause”. Caricom needs a “reset”. To defend the need for a Caribbean institution dedicated to integration, as the means to accomplishing the objectives of Caricom is not to defend any specific institution – defined as a set of rules that must be followed by the organisation. These must be judged – and reformed or discarded – on their merits.
But as the world changes, the institutions sometimes do not keep in step with those changes and this is the problem with Caricom. However, the organisations, defined as the personnel in place to work within the rules to deliver the objectives, almost invariably become set in their ways. They develop an inertia that needs to be overcome to make them more attuned to the new world that the institution must cope with.
The challenge for us is to find a role for Caricom, relevant to present circumstances, and to decide on the operational capabilities and instruments which that role requires. Holding meetings and issuing communiqués are not enough. It is worth noting the nature of the challenge. The specific commitments made in 1973 may no longer be relevant. And this is why many Caribbean citizens feel Caricom is useless. Failure to reform the institution will condemn it to irrelevance and obscurity. But nothing would be more damaging to our prospects of joining the developed world alike than the abandonment of further integration.
But piecemeal reforms are unlikely to work. Caricom should focus on those specific areas where we need to tackle problems collectively. We will then have to ensure that the commitments the member countries enter into are clear. The job of institutions is to support those commitments. In many cases, like an umpire, their job will be to uphold them. That will only be possible if the players – countries – are very clear about the agreed rules of the game. Without that, any further design is pointless.
We will then have to provide Caricom with the necessary tools to umpire the commitments of nation states. For instance, we cannot put off not appointing a governing council with the authority and responsibility to implement the necessary changes. If this generation fails,d then the work of those who were “present at the creation” will have been undone. It is our duty to re-create the institutional framework that we inherited.
Caricom cannot be allowed to simply muddle on.

Capital controls

The entire premise of the IMF’s conditionalities imposed on our economy in 1989, dubbed the “Washington Consensus”, was that with the liberalisation of our financial sector – meaning removing all controls from the flow of funds to and from our financial institutions – we would be more attractive to funds for development. At the time, because of our debilitating lack of foreign reserves, we had imposed stringent capital controls over our financial system in a desperate effort to keep our national financial head above water.
The same conditionalities had been imposed over much of the developing world, beginning with Latin America, that had borrowed much of the funds garnered by OPEC and intermediated by the western banks. But by the end of the nineties, these countries discovered that this unrestricted capital flow was a double-edged sword. While it could stimulate growth in the economy, it can also cause it to implode if investors can decamp at the first signs of ‘trouble’.
The Asian financial crisis of the late 1997-98 was a painful reminder of how foreign capital can severely exacerbate an emerging financial crisis. Following a run-up in asset prices, which were fuelled by foreign investment, the economies of Indonesia, Thailand, and South Korea, for example, saw their currencies depreciate sharply as foreign credit abruptly fled their troubled financial systems. Cyprus has been the latest victim of this phenomenon and has been forced to impose capital controls in an effort to stop the haemorrhaging of funds from its banking system.
Cyprus had enjoyed extraordinary sustained growth rates starting in the 1990′s when  its liberalized financial sector and attractive interest rates pulled in funds seeking  high return without any controls. It became a safe haven especially for Russians who had suddenly found a bonanza with their country’s embrace of capitalism. This became even more accentuated with Cyprus’ accession to the EU in 2004. But when the bubble burst as the intertwined Greek economy imploded last year, it was only a matter of time for Cyprus to follow suit.
But as Brazil and several other countries in Latin America discovered rather early on as the initial guinea pigs of the Washington Consensus, there are many other deleterious effects of unrestricted capital flow on a host economy. For one, it will cause the local currency to appreciate in value and make the local products more expensive in the global marketplace. This has been the basis of the struggle in the last decade between the US, on one hand, and emerging giants like China and Brazil on the other hand, on monetary policy.
They accuse the US of artificially keeping its interests hovering around zero, forcing its hordes of investors to pump their funds into their economies/financial systems which in turn appreciate their currencies. Capital controls may take the form of a tax on foreign capital inflows or quotas on investment. Host countries can also limit volatility inflows by requiring that a certain percentage of foreign investment be held in reserve for a specified number of days at the receiving country’s central bank. This type of control, called a “lock-in” policy, prevents sudden withdrawals of capital.
All of this should become of interest to local policy-makers as our economy shows signs of sustained growth, as opposed to the rest of the Caricom economies. While the capital base of investors might not be very large by international standards, because of our comparatively extremely minuscule economy, a sudden influx of these funds can be disruptive. In the last few months, we have had two large Jamaican financial conglomerates, Grace Kennedy and billionaire investor Michael Lee Chin’s Portland Holdings, express interest in investments in our financial sector and agriculture.
While agricultural investments should be welcomed with open arms, we should have capital controls in place to deal with the downside of unrestricted financial flows. Even the IMF now approves.

Venezuela: Tense victory

Because of the different trajectories the Anglophone Caribbean (now grouped in Caricom) and Latin America were forced into because of their competing imperialistic forbears, the former rarely took great interest in the domestic affairs of the latter. But that was certainly not the case with the presidential election in Venezuela held last Sunday – at least among the political classes.
There were definitely sighs of relief in many Caribbean capitals, especially in Guyana and Jamaica, when on Monday morning, Nicolas Maduro, the hand-picked successor of Hugo Chávez, was declared by the Venezuelan National Electoral Council as the winner. The change of perspective, of course, had been precipitated by the initiatives of the recently departed Chávez to forge closer linkages with the Caribbean as part of his ‘Bolivarian Revolution’, launched more than a decade ago.
The ALBA (Bolivarian Alliance for our Americas) was a social, economic, and political integration movement that did attract some Caricom members such as Antigua and St Vincent as members. The carrot in the arrangement was the Petrocaribe facility, under which Venezuelan oil was supplied to 17 cash-strapped, mainly Caribbean, countries under very attractive terms. Very little money had to be paid up front and the balance was stretched out over 20 years, at nominal interest rates. What made the facility even more attractive was that it facilitated what were fundamentally barter arrangements with recipient countries allowed to ship commodities, such as rice in the case of Guyana, in lieu of cash payments.
The patent relief manifested is a consequence of Maduro pledging to continue the Petrocaribe facility as opposed to his defeated opponent Henrique Capriles. Capriles represents the sentiments of the conservative segments of the Venezuelan polity that enjoyed power in collaboration with U.S. interests that exploited Venezuelan oil.
Venezuela has the largest reserves of petroleum in the world and the stakes to control that commodity are very high.
The vote in the election, however, was very close, with Maduro receiving 50.7 percent and Capriles 49.1 percent, with only about 300,000 votes separating the two camps. Rather dispiritingly, but not surprisingly, Capriles has challenged the results and is demanding ‘an audit’. Hundreds of observers, foreign and domestic had officially scrutinised the vote in a system which former U.S. President Jimmy Carter had dubbed ‘the best in the world’. There have been no reports of any irregularities.
Capriles’ challenge has the potential to destabilise the Venezuelan revolution launched by Chávez to bring greater equity to the distribution of the wealth generated by what he pointed out was the patrimony of all Venezuelans – oil. In the last decade, there were rapid gains made by the poor in the areas of health, education, jobs, and opportunities. On the other hand, there has been an unfortunate upsurge of crime, inflation, and shortages of food that gave credence to the criticisms of Capriles that the economic policies must be more nuanced than simply focusing on redistributing the oil bonanza.
In contrast to Maduro, who declared that he was ‘the son’ and ‘apostle’ of Chávez and would continue undeviatingly on the path set out by the latter, Capriles has patterned himself on the example of the more moderate ex-President of Brazil, Lula. While Lula was also charismatic, with firm roots in the poorer sections of his society, he had chosen a more moderate course for the transformation of his country’s also lopsided distribution of wealth. His focus was on the diversification of the Brazilian economy and taking welfare measures to improve the lot of the poor.
Capriles’ message obviously resounded in the country in tandem with doubts that Maduro would be capable of steering the Venezuelan ship of state in the present choppy waters. Whatever the outcome of the electoral challenge, it is clear that Maduro will be politically challenged from both inside and outside his party. The Caribbean hopes he does not have to abandon Petrocaribe.

Job creation vs poverty alleviation

APNUs point man on economics, Mr Carl Greenidge, charged that the government in its budget was not focusing sufficiently on poverty reduction. Making this charge against a background, as outlined by the finance minister last week, of manageable public debt, declining fiscal deficits, recurrent account surpluses, low inflation, a healthy banking sector and persistent growth of the GDP for the past six years even as the sugar industry is unable to attract workers, has to be a statement based on ideology rather than reality.
Mr Greenidge is evidently still holding on to the thinking that guided the PNC in its seemingly laudable goal of making the small man, the real man. That policy failed ignominiously for the simple reason that all they were trying to do was to redistribute the wealth of the country to transform the small man. They lost sight of the even simpler fact that since the economy was not growing, all they were doing was ‘robbing Peter to pay Paul’. The entire system collapsed when ‘Peter’ balked at being impoverished and decamped for foreign grounds.
‘Paul’ was normally the citizen with the most initiative, capital and know-how, so that his departure set up a vicious cycle that we are still experiencing. For Guyana to progress, all sections have to rise up: since poverty is a relative measure, there will always be a certain percentage of citizens defined as ‘poor’. Even the number one economy in the world according to the UNDP, Norway, has “poor people” – those with less than US$ 44,000 annually.
As the example of sugar shows, the problem in Guyana when we discuss poverty is not that there are no jobs available: in the most densely populated areas on the coastland, jobs in the sugar industry go begging. For years, the opposition had been complaining that sugar workers were being pampered by the administration and that the wage scale in the industry was way too high.
That charge was obviously false or else there would have been no complaints from the management of GuySuCo that their labour attendance rarely meets 50 per cent. What happened during the PNC regime, under the guidance of finance ministers like Mr Greenidge, was that the limited job opportunities in a stagnating and static economy left workers restricted to low-productivity jobs that precluded them from raising their standard of living. Even if the small man became a ‘real man’, his income could only remain small. Mr Greenidge and the rest of the opposition must understand and accept that Guyana needs an inclusive tide of growth that will raise the ships of all.
Inevitably, however, as the experience of Norway shows, there will always be income differentials. The secret is to make the lowest stratum have enough income and opportunities that they can live with dignity. What then is the right road to inclusive growth? Within the last two decades, Asia has shown us the way. The key to the success of many high-performing Asian economies has been a dynamic structural transformation where the composition of output shifts from low-productivity goods into high-productivity ones, where labour moves from agriculture to industry, and exports become more diversified. These economies have maintained productivity gains by systematically upgrading technology and manufactured products, boosting labour productivity, raising household incomes, and fostering inclusive growth.
The PPP/C government has been laying the groundwork for the structural transformation of the economy along the lines suggested above. Our infrastructural base, which is low even by Caribbean/ Latin American standards (already lowest in the developing world), is being upgraded – even though the opposition is fighting it tooth and nail. The facility for moving into the ICT arena is being laid, and in tandem with the OLPF programme, is preparing our workers to make a quantum leap upwards. The examples abound.
Let us change our perspective from worrying about poverty to focusing on creating wealth for all.

Celebrating our diversity

Phagwah or Holi is not just a public holiday in Guyana, but like Christmas, it has become an all-Guyana festival. As our newspaper showed, Holi started early in our schools. Our children, some having probably learnt of the significance of the festival from their social studies, engaged in re-enactments of the legend behind Holi, as well as created the kaleidoscope of colours on their bodies and faces that the festival promotes. It appears that our premier school, Queen’s College, led the way in this respect, with children of all backgrounds, ethnicities and religions celebrating this joyous occasion.
And all of this bodes well for the future growth and sustainable development of our country. All studies have shown that one of the factors that are crucial to a country’s progress is an increase in that intangible – social capital. The World Bank says that, “Social capital refers to the institutions, relationships, and norms that shape the quality and quantity of a society’s social interactions. Increasing evidence shows that social cohesion is critical for societies to prosper economically and for development to be sustainable. Social capital is not just the sum of the institutions which underpin a society – it is the glue that holds them together.”
To the extent that Holi and other activities serve to make us see ourselves as ‘one people’, social capital is being increased.
If we can play together, then we can work together and progress together. For too long, we have allowed ourselves to be defined by outsiders who look at our differences to create ‘separateness’. Increasingly, however, that is not the Guyanese reality. Our differences are becoming a source of strength because we have a wider repertoire of responses to any given contingency.
Guyana used to be called ‘the land of six peoples’, but that was interpreted by some using the irrelevant criterion of ‘race’ to create caste-like hierarchical strata. Race and its divisions were almost impossible to transcend. However, looking at us as ‘six peoples with different cultures’ changed the ground reality by radically changing our perspectives. Cultures were not immutable: cultures meet and mix and hybridise and coalesce. Each permutation and combination produces something new and wonderful and most importantly, something shared.
And so we return to Holi as a paradigmatic example of this process, starting with our children. Children have no prejudices: have we all not seen nursery schoolchildren at play? It is, therefore, very important that we continue with our programmes in our schools where our children learn about the diverse practices that form our several cultures and simultaneously, our common Guyanese culture. In addition to Holi, the Christian festival of Easter begins with the observation of Good Friday. Many schools also had “Easter programmes”. Just as has happened this week with Guyanese of all backgrounds rubbing powder on each other’s faces, Easter Monday will see those same Guyanese participating in our almost unique Easter activity of ‘kite flying’. Children also have taken the lead and in every neighbourhood, the humming of the kites can be heard.
Guyana is a mosaic of many colours, of many ethnicities – all brought here and kept alive through our faith and forbearance. We must extend the catholicity of views that typify our social relations into other areas of our national life. After the contretemps that followed the last budget presentation, it is our hope that the politicians will take a cue from the bonhomie that has typified the relations of the people and respond to this year’s budget in a more positive vein.
Disagreements we will have – that can never be avoided. But what is critical is the attitude with which we try to settle those disagreements. Holi suggests that we can all come together and make something more vibrant out of the differences we represent. Happy Holi and Easter to all.

Guyana’s human development

With the release of the 2013 Human Development Report (HDR) by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), it is hoped that the data on Guyana and the recommendations (implicit or otherwise) will be used by the politicians to guide their posture and position in the budget presentation, which is scheduled to be made soon.
The HDR represents a bold attempt initiated in 1990 to provide a more nuanced picture of the ‘good life’ than that provided by the then prevailing metric of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It was, in a sense, a recognition and rejection of the economism that guided policy makers in favour of the ancient aphorism that ‘man does not live by bread alone’.
Developed by the Pakistani economist Mahbub ul Haq and Indian economist Amartya Sen, it is a comparative measure of life expectancy, literacy, education, standards of living, and quality of life for countries worldwide. It is a standard means of measuring well-being, especially child welfare. It represented a prolonged struggle by ‘radical’ economists to distinguish ‘growth’ from ‘development’.
It is interesting that a growing new measure of the ‘good life’ addresses the goal of ‘happiness’ and was pioneered by Bhutan, a country also in South East Asia. It would appear that the Eastern notions of the goals of human life are rising to the fore in guiding human endeavour.
After a hiatus in 2012, the 2013 Human Development Report offers a welcome comparative measure of the status of countries, that is not dominated by nebulous subjective factors. The theme of the report is, “The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World”, which acknowledges the remarkable effort of India, and more so China, to lift almost a billion persons out of poverty in a single decade.
This development has caused the entire report to be reorganised to now distinguish four broad human development categories, each of which comprises 47 countries: Very High Human Development, High Human Development, Medium Human Development, and Low Human Development (46 countries in this category).
Guyana is now classified as a country with ‘medium human development’ which is a far cry from the bottom of the barrel categorisation it was plunged into by 1980, after the experiments of the then People’s National Congress (PNC) regime. Between 1980 and 2012, the country’s Human Development Index (HDI) value increased from 0.513 to 0.636, an increase of 24 per cent or average annual increase of about 0.7 per cent.
It should be noted that, by 1990, when the HDI was initiated, Guyana had sunk below the extrapolated figures for 1980. Guyana is now ranked 118 out of 187 countries with a HDI value 0.636. While Latin America and the rest of the Caribbean have higher scores (excepting Haiti), they were all higher than us in 1980. Guyana had the disadvantage of starting from a very low base.
While acknowledging that Guyana has “done well”, the UNDP local representative suggested that “it’s very important for it to invest really a lot on education, infrastructure and developing the country, for example the interior”.
While in principle, all countries must invest more on education and infrastructure, the statement does not reflect the actual HDI numbers.
For instance, Guyana’s ‘non- income’ HDI is 0.703, which is very close to the “High Human Development” cut off point of 0.712. It is our ‘income index’ of 0.502 that has pulled us down below countries such as Trinidad and Tobago, for instance.
What this means is that the People’s Progressive Party (PPP) government has done very well on social sector and infrastructural spending. The new investments in hydroelectric power generation (starting with Amaila Falls), the airport and new housing stock will boost this aspect of development even further.
The opposition has to work with the government to move the old traditional ‘growth’ figures upwards. This means investment. If the private sector is skittish because of the political risk due to opposition actions, the government must get involved as it has done with the Marriott project.